Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 701 km/s at 21/1933Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 21/0723Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 21/0607Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 244 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (22 Mar, 23 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Mar 071
Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar 071/071/071
90 Day Mean        21 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar  022/032
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  017/022-014/018-012/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor Storm           10/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    30/60/50