Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 21/0717Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/0152Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/2306Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 696 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (22 Mar, 23 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (24 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Mar 089
Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 21 Mar 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 007/008-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/20
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/35/25