Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 21/0252Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (22 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 689 km/s at 21/0725Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/1801Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/0856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2257 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (23 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day three (24 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (22 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M 30/25/25
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 10/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 139
Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 130/125/120
90 Day Mean 21 Jun 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 006/005-008/012-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/40/40
Minor Storm 01/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/55/60