Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 20/2102Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/1758Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/2111Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3330 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (22 Jun, 23 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 079
Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 21 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 005/005-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/25