Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 418 km/s at 21/1311Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/0458Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/0319Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 067
Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 21 Jun 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/15