Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/1119Z from Region 2093 (S09W06). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun,
24 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
502 km/s at 21/2038. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/2145Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/2104Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 198 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (22 Jun, 23
Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Jun) with a chance for
minor storms in response the the passage of transient features.

III. Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jun 101
Predicted 22 Jun-24 Jun 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 21 Jun 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 013/018-018/018-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 35/25/35