Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 368 km/s at 21/0423Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/1834Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0440Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1363 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 068
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/25/25