Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 21/1514Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/0649Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 21/0623Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (23 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (24 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 070
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 007/008-008/010-019/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/40
Minor Storm 05/10/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/35/65