Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 785 km/s at 21/1805Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/0442Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/0039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7694 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (24 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jul 069
Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        21 Jul 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul  012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  010/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/15/15