Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 452 km/s at 21/1803Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 21/0242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 21/0455Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 249 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Jul) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 091
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 090/095/095
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 006/005-013/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/25
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/30/35
Major-severe storm 20/45/35