Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 299 km/s at
21/1710Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/2043Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/1423Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24
Jul).

III. Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 090
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 095/100/105
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10