Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
21/0844Z from Region 1800 (S08E22). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Jul,
23 Jul, 24 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 456 km/s at
21/0525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3740 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24
Jul).

III. Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 109
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 004/005-004/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10