Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 21/1732Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/1256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/1417Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7 pfu at 20/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3999 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Jan, 23 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 097
Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 095/093/089
90 Day Mean 21 Jan 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 009/010-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/25
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 35/50/30