Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 21/0145Z from Region 2487 (S13E22). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 547 km/s at 21/2031Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 21/0545Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -19 nT at 21/0352Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Jan, 24 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 104
Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 21 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 012/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 023/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 011/012-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/25/20