Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 21/1236Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 21/0503Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/0726Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6701 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 075
Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 21 Feb 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 015/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 015/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 008/010-010/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 05/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/45/45