Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 20/2139Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/0745Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/0746Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7036 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Feb 068
Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        21 Feb 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/15
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/20