Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 755 km/s at 21/0712Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/1932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21836 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (22 Feb, 23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 097
Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 100/105/110
90 Day Mean 21 Feb 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/25