Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 21/0732Z from Region 2242 (S18W57). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 457 km/s at 21/1847Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 21/1825Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 21/1854Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 21/2015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 400 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (22 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Dec, 24 Dec). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
Class M 85/85/85
Class X 40/40/40
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 206
Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 205/200/185
90 Day Mean 21 Dec 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 018/022-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec-24 Dec
