Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 412 km/s at 21/0010Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/0123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/0153Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 706 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 067
Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 21 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 007/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 005/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05