Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 710 km/s at 20/2106Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/1904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9296 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Aug 068
Predicted   22 Aug-24 Aug 070/070/068
90 Day Mean        21 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug  015/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug  008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  009/010-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/20