Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 21/1932Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 21/1429Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 21/1323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 889 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (22 Aug, 23 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 077
Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 21 Aug 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 007/007-007/008-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/20