Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 21 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
21/1331Z from Region 2149 (N12E77). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug,
24 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
356 km/s at 21/2015Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 20/2102Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/0520Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 522 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Aug) and quiet levels on
days two and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 128
Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 135/140/150
90 Day Mean 21 Aug 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 006/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug-24 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 15/05/05