Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 314 km/s at 20/0659Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/2033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/2021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1273 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Oct 070
Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct 070/070/068
90 Day Mean        20 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  006/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10