Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 October 2017

By SpaceRef Editor
October 20, 2017
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 19/2100Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/2156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/0206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 851 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Oct, 22 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (23 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Oct 076
Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct 078/083/083
90 Day Mean        20 Oct 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  008/010-009/010-005/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/10

SpaceRef staff editor.