Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 19/2324Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/1758Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/0712Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38252 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (22 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (23 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 075
Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 20 Oct 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 005/005-016/022-018/024

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/35
Minor Storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/40/30