Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 20, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 20/0404Z from Region 2437 (S20E46). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 406 km/s at 20/0316Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1347Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/1524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1254 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (23 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 123
Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 125/120/120
90 Day Mean 20 Oct 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 009/012-007/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 30/25/15

SpaceRef staff editor.