Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solarwind speed reached a peak of 570 km/s at 20/1813Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/0612Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/0602Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 587 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (23 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 080
Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 20 Nov 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 013/015-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/25/10