Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 November 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 359 km/s at 20/1632Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/1917Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/1917Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 235 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 070
Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 070/070/068
90 Day Mean 20 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 015/020-012/016-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/30
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/40/35