Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 November 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 20/1104Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 20/0317Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 20/0421Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 071
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/15