Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 20/2006Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/1321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2716 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (22 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (23 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 076
Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 075/078/080
90 Day Mean 20 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 008/008-013/020-025/035

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/40
Minor Storm 05/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/20