Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 November 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 422 km/s at 20/0029Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/1956Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/0715Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 230 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 111
Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 110/112/112
90 Day Mean 20 Nov 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 007/008-009/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/20