Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
20/1722Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 423 km/s at
20/0630Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/0308Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/0039Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 19/2105Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23
Nov).

III. Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 147
Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 140/135/130
90 Day Mean 20 Nov 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10