Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 20/1951Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/0322Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/2351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 579 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 May, 22 May) and quiet levels on day three (23 May).

III.  Event probabilities 21 May-23 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 May 069
Predicted   21 May-23 May 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        20 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/15