Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 20/0745Z from Region 2971 (N16E03). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (21 Mar) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 322 km/s at 20/0148Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/1720Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/0317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M 10/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 095
Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 20 Mar 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 011/012-008/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/25