Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 March 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 19/2255Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/1706Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/2038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 421 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 072
Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 20 Mar 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 007/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20