Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 20/1118Z from Region 2736 (N09W35). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 19/2328Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1551 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Mar, 22 Mar) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (23 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Mar 077
Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        20 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  006/005-005/005-017/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/40
Major-severe storm    01/01/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/05
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/15/65