Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 March 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 19/2222Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/1610Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/1752Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21043 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (22 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (23 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Mar 069
Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        20 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  013/016-016/020-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/35
Minor Storm           15/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/55/45