Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 20/0133Z from Region 2521 (N18W91). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 19/2250Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/2001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/1714Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1640 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 088
Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 090/085/085
90 Day Mean 20 Mar 103

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 008/008-007/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/35