Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 March 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
March 20, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 March 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to

20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at

20/0133Z from Region 2297 (Now beyond the West limb). There are

currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low

with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Mar,

22 Mar, 23 Mar).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.

Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak

speed of 676 km/s at 19/2224Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1737Z. The

maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/2347Z. Electrons

greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22318

pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Mar) and unsettled to

minor storm levels on days two and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar).

 

III.  Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           20 Mar 113

Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar 115/115/115

90 Day Mean        20 Mar 134

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  019/029

Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar  018/024

Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  012/012-017/020-016/020

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/40/40

Minor Storm           05/20/20

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/10/10

Minor Storm           30/25/25

Major-severe storm    35/55/55

SpaceRef staff editor.