Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 March 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was an M1 event observed at
20/0356Z from Region 2010 (S15E25). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar,
23 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at
20/0801Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/0820Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/0908Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Mar, 22 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (23 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 151
Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 20 Mar 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 006/005-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/20