Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 20/0838Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/0451Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/0455Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jun 068
Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun 067/067/067
90 Day Mean        20 Jun 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/15/10