Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 19/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 215 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jun 082
Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun 082/080/080
90 Day Mean        20 Jun 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/10