Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 June 2017

By SpaceRef Editor
June 20, 2017
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 20/1117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2428 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jun 074
Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        20 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  005/005-006/008-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/15/20

SpaceRef staff editor.