- Status Report
- Feb 6, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 June 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 20/1117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2428 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jun 074
Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 20 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 005/005-006/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/15/20