Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul, 23 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 338 km/s at 19/2118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1846 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Jul, 22 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 067
Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 20 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 005/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25