- Status Report
- Jan 29, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 July 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (21 Jul) and expected to be very low on days two and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 20/2037Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/1650Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/1757Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11443 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Jul, 23 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (22 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 070
Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 20 Jul 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 008/008-009/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/15/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/50/15