Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 July 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 20/0317Z from Region 2567 (N05W37). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (21 Jul, 22 Jul) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (23 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 20/0721Z. Total IMF reached 34 nT at 20/0100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -28 nT at 20/0022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3426 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Jul, 22 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M 25/25/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 108
Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 20 Jul 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 011/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 018/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 013/016-010/012-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/30/25