Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul, 23 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 306 km/s at 20/1939Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/1438Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/1056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6019 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jul), quiet levels on day two (22 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 093
Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 20 Jul 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 008/008-006/005-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/35
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/45