Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 454 km/s at 20/1901Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/0647Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/0559Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jan 070
Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        20 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  011/012-008/010-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/25/20