Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 630 km/s at 19/2208Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 19/2222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2979 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 Jan, 22 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (23 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jan 083
Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan 085/085/085
90 Day Mean        20 Jan 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  009/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/10