Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 20/0734Z from Region 2484 (N08W83). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 424 km/s at 20/0326Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 20/0351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 20/1527Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Jan, 23 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day two (22 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 100
Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 095/100/100
90 Day Mean 20 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 007/010-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/35/25
Major-severe storm 25/30/20